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62. Trading the News - Economic Numbers - GDP Part 1

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http://www.informedtrades.com/... A lesson on what traders of the stock, futures, and forex markets look for when the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Number is released. As we have learned in previous lessons there are many components of the US Economy which can affect overall economic growth and inflation expectations. Some of the major examples here are how many people are employed in the economy vs. unemployed, how much the housing market is growing in different parts of the country, and at what rate the prices for different products in the economy are seeing increases. As all of these things are so important to the economy and therefore to the markets, there are no shortage of economic reports which are released to try and help people gauge how things are going with different pieces of the economy. It is important for us as traders to understand the major reports here as even if we are trading off of technicals, understanding what is happening in the market from a fundamental standpoint can help establish a longer term bias for trading. In the short term an understanding of these numbers will also help to assess the erratic and sometimes extreme movements which can occur after economic releases. The granddaddy of all economic reports is the release of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) number for the economy. The Gross Domestic Product for the US or any other country is the final value of all the goods and services produced in that economy. Essentially what you get after calculating GDP by adding up the value of all goods and services produced in the economy is a measure of the size of the overall economy. It is for this reason that market participants will watch the GDP number closely as the rate of growth in this number represents the rate of growth in the overall economy. As a side note here, GDP also allows a comparison to be made of the sizes of different economies from around the world, as well as their growth rates. To give you an idea of just how large the US Economy is, 2007 GDP for the United States was estimated at 13.7 Trillion dollars. This is in comparison to the next largest economy in the world, Japan which has a GDP of under 5 Trillion Dollars. Quarterly estimates of GDP are released each month with Advance Estimates which are incomplete and subject to further revision being released near the end of the first month after the end of the quarter being reported. In the second month after the end of the quarter being reported preliminary numbers (which basically means more accurate than advanced) normally are released and then finally the final GDP number is released at the end of the 3rd month after the end of the quarter being reported on. Traders are going to focus heavily on the growth rate released in the Advanced number and markets will also move on any significant revisions made in the preliminary and final GDP numbers.

Channel: Howto & Style
Uploaded: November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am
Author: InformedTrades

Length: 07:18
Rating: 4.69
Views: 3339

Tags: analysis  Domestic  economy  forex  fundamental  futures  GDP  Gross  howto  informedtrades  investing  Product  stockmarket  trade  

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Video Comments

marsaxod (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
Federal Reserve is a Rothshild's business.
jbcaldwell63 (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
FYI - Just for comparison, at 13 trillion the US GDP for 2007 is actually LESS than the combined GDP of the European Union at 17 trillion. Unfortunately more and more we have to look at their economies as a whole instead of individually.
James9067 (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
Consumer purchase+Industrial investments+Gouvernment expenditure+Exports-Imports=GDP
psikeyhackr (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
{{{ It's a system that automatically takes into account depreciation of automobiles by factoring in replacement and demand. }}} RUBBISH!!! The Net Domestic Product includes depreciation but only the depreciation of CAPITAL GOODS. Check any economics book. tinyurl (dot) com/25p25y
chasleo (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
The sales of automobiles would properly reflect the consumer expenditure on such vehicles - reflecting a partial value of the gross US domestic products. It's a system that automatically takes into account depreciation of automobiles by factoring in replacement and demand.
psikeyhackr (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
When consumers buy cars they get added to GDP. But cars wear out and must eventually be replaced. When consumers buy replacements they get added to GDP. But the cars that wore out never got subtracted from anywhere. Economists don't mention NDP much but only CAPITAL goods get depreciated. Economists can't do algebra. They don't mention the planned obsolescence of automobiles either. Planned obsolescence is good for the stock holders of the corps that make the junk. If consumers are DUMB!
wawbwc (November 30, 1999 at 12:00 am)
Save the Economy. Close down the Federal Reserve.


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